NCJ Number
60589
Journal
Journal of Applied Social Psychology Volume: 9 Issue: 2 Dated: (1979) Pages: 135-146
Date Published
1979
Length
12 pages
Annotation
QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL TIME-SERIES DESIGNS WERE USED TO ASSESS THE IMPACT ON CRIME RATES OF JAMAICA'S 1974 ANTICRIME PROGRAM.
Abstract
THE ANTICRIME PROGRAM INCLUDED THE OUTLAWING OF ALL GUNS EXCEPT LICENSED FIREARMS, SEVERE PENALTIES FOR GUN CRIMES OR POSSESSION OF ILLEGAL GUNS, CENSORSHIP OF GUN SCENES FROM TELEVISION AND MOVIES, AND GREATLY BROADENED POLICE POWERS INCLUDING SEARCHES WITHOUT WARRANTS, CURFEWS, AND INCREASED PATROLS. IN THE PRESENT STUDY, BOTH MONTHS AND YEARS WERE USED AS THE UNITS OF ANALYSIS. CRIME STATISTICS FROM THE 1964 THROUGH 1975 WERE USED. THE TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS COMPARED CRIME TRENDS BEFORE AND AFTER THE GUN LAWS. DATA FOR SEVERAL CRIME CATEGORIES WERE ANALYZED, INCLUDING HOMICIDE, RAPE, ROBBERY, AND SHOOTING. IN A 1 YEAR PERIOD FOLLOWING THE INITIATION OF THE ANTICRIME PROGRAM, HOMICIDES DROPPED BY 14 PERCENT; RAPES, BY 32 PERCENT; ROBBERIES, BY 25 PERCENT; AND NONFATAL SHOOTINGS, BY 37 PERCENT. IT WAS CONCLUDED THAT THE ANTICRIME MEASURES DEFINITELY REDUCED CRIME, BUT THAT THE REASONS FOR THE REDUCTION ARE NOT KNOWN. FEAR OF PUNISHMENT, DECREASED NUMBERS OF FIREARMS, AND INCREASED POLICE SURVEILLANCE AND CURFEWS PROBABLY ALL INFLUENCED THE CRIME REDUCTION, BUT DIFFERENT ANTICRIME MEASURES MAY HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF CRIMES. ONLY LONG-TERM DATA CAN DETERMINE THE DURATION OF THE PROGRAM'S EFFECT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT EVEN STRICT ANTICRIME MEASURES WILL NOT ELIMINATE CRIME OR REDUCE IT TO THE POINT OF BEING A MINOR CONCERN. TABLES, A FOOTNOTE, REFERENCE NOTES, AND A REFERENCE LIST ARE INCLUDED. (CFW)