NCJ Number
25170
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 2 Issue: 1 Dated: (SPRING 1974) Pages: 37-54
Date Published
1974
Length
18 pages
Annotation
MODELS ARE DEVELOPED FOR THE FLOW OF PRISONERS THROUGH A STATE PRISON SYSTEM (GEORGIA'S) AND ARE USED TO EVALUATE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ALTERNATIVE CORRECTIONAL PROGRAMS.
Abstract
MARKOV MODELS ARE USED TO MODEL THE VARIOUS STATES OF AN INDIVIDUAL AS HE PASSES THROUGH THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. MARKOV MODELS ARE BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE PROBABILITIES OF TRANSITION FROM STATE TO STATE (EX., FROM IMPRISONMENT TO PAROLE) DEPEND ONLY ON THE CURRENT STATE AND NOT ON PREVIOUS STATES. USING GEORGIA DATA AVERAGED FOR THE YEARS 1967-1971, TRANSITION MATRICES WERE CONSTRUCTED FOR ASSAULT, ROBBERY, BURGLARY, AND LARCENY OFFENDERS WITH RESPECT TO THE STATES OF IN PRISON FOR CONVICTION, IN PRISON FOR PAROLE VIOLATION, OUT OF PRISON ON PAROLE, AND OUT OF PRISON BECAUSE SENTENCE OR PAROLE COMPLETED. SEVERAL COST MATRICES WERE ALSO CONSTRUCTED. THE APPLICATIONS OF THIS MODELING TECHNIQUE TO THE EVALUATION OF CORRECTIONAL ALTERNATIVES IS DISCUSSED.