Evaluation of Risk Screening in the Connecticut Office of Adult Probation - Report 2

• NCJ Number: 86297
• Author(s): J O Sullivan; N B Wilson; R F Rodgers
• Date Published: 1981
• Length: 124 pages
• Grant Number(s): CA-6
• Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Corrections
• Corporate Author: Connecticut Judicial Dept; New England Management Services, Inc
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Program/Project Evaluation
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Data from over 14,000 probationers in Connecticut formed the basis of an evaluation of a program to screen probationers for their risk of further criminal activity.

Abstract

The Differential Caseload Management by Objectives program aimed to enable probation officers to concentrate their efforts on the clients most in need of intensive supervision. Preliminary assessment of the risk prediction system had shown a nearly perfect linear relationship between risk predictive scores and the success/failure rates of probationers. The followup study enlarged an earlier data base and refined the original predictive instrument. The assessment instrument used such factors as the seriousness of the current offense, the prior record, age, education, employment, and alcohol or drug use and mental health problems. The evaluation of the instrument's predictive accuracy used a wide array of statistical tests. The risk predictive scores correlated strongly with client success and failure. The system represents a unique contribution to the social sciences because it shows that empirical prediction can be an effective way to forecast future behaviors. Such systematic caseload management systems will be increasingly beneficial in the face of resource limits. Organizations should change to permit the implementation of these systems. Data tables, forms, and figures are included.