EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF THE SUPREME COURT'S CASELOAD FROM 1880-1976

• NCJ Number: 69117
• Journal: Judicature Volume: 64 Issue: 1 Dated: (JUNE/JULY 1980) Pages: 33-42
• Author(s): W P MCLAUCHLAN
• Date Published: 1980
• Length: 11 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Historical Overview
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: THIS ARTICLE IS A REVISED VERSION OF A COLLOQUIUM PRESENTATION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA LAW SCHOOL, JANUARY 1979, AND A PAPER PREPARED FOR DELIVERY AT THE 1979 ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION, AUGUST 31 - SEPTEMBER 3

Annotation

THE U.S. SUPREME COURT'S CASELOAD OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS IS ANALYZED THROUGH EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS (EDA).

Abstract

THE PURPOSE OF THE STUDY IS TO PRESENT A SET OF ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES WHICH ILLUMINATE PATTERNS IN AND MAGNITUDE OF THE CASELOAD GROWTH OF THE U.S. SUPREME COURT. BASED ON THE AGGREGATE STATISTICS OF CASPER AND POSNER, THE STUDY USES EDA, A SET OF RELATIVELY NEW STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES. 'SMOOTHING' TECHNIQUES ENABLE THE RESEARCHER TO DETECT VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF PATTERN IN THE VARIABLE, AND THE 'ROUGHS' (RESIDUALS WHICH REMAIN AFTER THE SMOOTHED MEDIANS HAVE BEEN REMOVED) ARE USEFUL IN SEARCHING FOR DISCRETE, MICROLEVEL EVENTS OR VARIABLES WHICH CAN EXPLAIN INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE TIME SERIES DATA. THE DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SUPREME COURT CASELOAD OVER TIME CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE RATE OF CHANGE HAS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED, PARTICULARLY IN THE PERIOD AFTER WORLD WAR II. HOWEVER, IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN WORLD WARS I AND II, THE RATE OF CHANGE WAS HIGHER THAN FOR THE PERIOD FROM 1880 TO 1915. IN THE EARLIER PERIOD, THE RATE OF CHANGE INVOLVED ABOUT A THREE-CASE INCREASE PER YEAR, WHILE THE SAME RATE IN THE LATER PERIOD AMOUNTED TO NEARLY A 98-CASE INCREASE PER YEAR. THE STUDY IS SUPPORTED BY NUMEROUS STATISTICAL GRAPHS AND EXTENSIVE FOOTNOTES.