NCJ Number
77806
Date Published
1981
Length
45 pages
Annotation
This study identifies factors predictive of recidivism among probationers in Ontario, Canada, and relates these factors to level of supervision. It also develops a risk scale to assist in classifying probationers to varying degrees of supervision.
Abstract
The sample reported on consists of 1,104 male and female probationers. Recidivism data were obtained from the Ministry's Adult Information System and from probation officers. Three measures of recidivism were examined: reconviction during the probation period, reconviction between the date the probation order was issued and 24 months following termination, and sentences of incarceration between the date the probation order was issued and 24 months following termination. The data provide a recidivism baseline for probationers in Ontario. Variables found to be indicative of high recidivism include criminal history, low socioeconomic status, lack of family cohesiveness, and others. The identification of factors which, in combination, best predict recidivism, enabled the researcher to construct a six-factor recidivism risk scale. A strong association was found between high risk scores and intensive supervision, and only 7.5 percent of the total sample appeared to be given a level of supervision at variance with the recidivism risk score. The study does not demonstrate causal relationships between the factors described and recidivism. Caution should be exercised in attempting to reduce recidivism by influencing factors which, though predictive of recidivism, may not be contributing causes. Regression analyses, tabular data, and a description of offense categories are appended.