NCJ Number
14036
Journal
Journal of Urban Economics Volume: 1 Dated: (1974) Pages: 184-229
Date Published
1974
Length
46 pages
Annotation
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES TO THE THEORY THAT POPULATION SIZE AND DENSITY ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CRIME RATE ARE TESTED IN MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSES OF RELATED FACTORS.
Abstract
THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY THAT POPULATION SIZE REFELCTS DIFFERENCES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS BY SIZE OF PLACE, WITH CRIME PRONE GROUPS TENDING TO LOCATE IN LARGER PLACES. THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS THAT SOME CAUSES OF CRIME MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH URBAN SCALE, DEFINED AS EMBRACING BOTH SIZE AND DENSITY, WITHOUT THE ASSOCIATION BEING NECESSARY OR IMMUTABLE. THE INTRODUCTION OF OTHER INDEPENDENT VARIABLES GREATLY ATTENUATED, BUT DID NOT ELIMINATE, THE POSITIVE EFFECT OF POPULATION ON CRIME, A RESULT FALLING BETWEEN THE COMPETING ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES. HOWEVER, CONTRARY TO INITIAL HYPOTHESIS, DENSITY, GENERALLY TENDS TO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON CRIME, AND THIS PERSISTS EVEN WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF OTHER VARIABLES. BECAUSE DENSITY IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED WITH POPULATION SIZE, THE NEGATIVE DENSITY EFFECT IS AN OFFSET TO THE POSITIVE EFFECT OF SIZE ON CRIME RATES, AND THE OFFSET BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE FULL SET OF INDEPENDENT VARIABLES EMPLOYED HERE. IN THAT CONTEXT, THE SCALE EFFECT (SIZE AND DENSITY CONSIDERED JOINTLY) APPEARS TO HAVE A RATHER MODEST IMPACT ON CRIME RATES. THE OTHER INDEPENDENT VARIABLES INCLUDE BOTH PRESUMED CAUSATIVE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL FACTORS. IN THE FORMER SET, UNEMPLOYMENT, JULY TEMPERATURE AND CROWDED HOUSING ARE ALL POSITIVELY RELATED TO CRIME RATE, WITH THE EFFECT OF UNEMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATED IN PROPERTY CRIMES, AND THAT OF THE OTHER TWO VARIABLES SEEMINGLY CONCENTRATED IN CRIMES OF VIOLENCE. A NUMBER OF DEMOGRAPHIC, ETHNIC AND REGIONAL FACTORS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY RELATED TO CRIME RATES. ALTHOUGH THE FACTORS INVOLVE DIFFERENCES IN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY LOCALE, A UNIFYING CAUSAL PROCESS MAY APPLY TO MANY OF THEM, SUBSUMABLE UNDER THE HEADING OF THE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF GROWTH AND CHANGE, FOR SOME PORTION OF CRIMES COMMITTED MAY WELL REFLECT SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION ATTENDANT ON GROWTH AND CHANGE. IN PARTICULAR, THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT BLACK CRIME RATES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER IN THE NORTH THAN IN THE SOUTH, AND SOME EVIDENCE THAT INCREASES IN BLACK CRIME RATES IN THE 1960-1970 DECADE WERE GREATER IN THE NORTH THAN IN THE SOUTH. AGAIN, CRIME RATES OF THE FOREIGN BORN APPEAR TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS, BUT THOSE OF THE CHILDREN OF THE FOREIGN BORN ARE BELOW AVERAGE. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)