Fall 2003 Colorado Division of Criminal Justice Adult Prison and Parole Population Projections: Juvenile Commitment and Parole Population Projections

• NCJ Number: 206860
• Author(s): Linda Harrison; Nicole Hetz
• Date Published: December 2003
• Length: 40 pages
• Corporate Author: Colorado Dept of Public Safety
• Sale Source: Colorado Dept of Public Safety
• Publication Format: Document (Online)
• Publication Type: Report (Annual/Periodic)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Downloaded September 9, 2004.

Annotation

This report presents the Fall 2003 adult prison and parole population projections and juvenile commitment and parole population projections, as estimated by the Colorado Department of Corrections and the Colorado Department of Human Services, Division of Youth Corrections.

Abstract

Several data sources were used to develop the adult projection model, including data from the Department of Correction (DOC), the Department of Local Affairs (DOLA), and the Criminal Justice Database. The premise of the adult projection model is that new prison commitments are determined by the State population and aged-based prison incarceration rates. A reliable forecast of prison population is then made by combining new commitments with estimates of average length of stay (ALOS) in prison. These calculations indicate that between 2001 and 2010, the rate of incarceration in Colorado is expected to substantially decline. The three-step process for statewide population projections is presented. A historical overview of issues affecting the projections is presented, including the 1995 House Bill that allowed "earned time" for certain non-violent offenders. The findings of the adult prison population projections are then presented, followed by the findings for the adult parole projections. Findings indicate that the adult prison population in Colorado is expected to increase 30.9 percent between July 2003 and July 2009; the male prison population is expected to increase 30.1 percent, while the female prison population is expected to increase 39.5 percent during this time period. The total number of offenders on parole in Colorado is projected to increase 38.7 percent between July 2003 and July 2009. Next, the juvenile projection model is explained, followed by a review of recent legislation affecting juvenile commitment and parole populations. The findings on juvenile population projections indicate that statewide juvenile commitment is expected to increase 7.5 percent between July 2003 and July 2009, while juvenile parole growth is expected to hit 11.6 percent over the projection period. Tables, figures