NCJ Number
229893
Journal
Federal Probation Volume: 73 Issue: 3 Dated: December 2009 Pages: 10-21
Date Published
December 2009
Length
12 pages
Annotation
This paper examines the relationship between the number of persons sentenced to Federal prison and the number admitted to postconviction supervision (PCS) between 1987 and 2005, so as to improve the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts' (AO's) annual forecast of individuals under supervised release.
Abstract
The study indicates that the two time series (persons sentenced to prison and persons entering PCS) move in the same direction, except for a 2-year period (1997 through 1998) when the number sentenced to prison grew at a faster rate than the number entering PCS; this gap increased for several years after 1998 and stabilized after 2000, remaining large. The breaking of the pattern in 1997 through 1998 reflects the hiring freeze that affected assistant U.S. attorney and other Federal law enforcement positions within the FBI, the DEA, Customs, and the INS from 1993 to 1995. This study focused on two factors: implementation of the Federal sentencing guidelines and determinate sentencing for offenses committed after November 1, 1987; and policies initiated in 1994 to curb the entry of illegal aliens into the United States along the Southwestern border. Both of these factors are seen to have a role in the widening gap between the number of persons sentenced to prison and the number received into PCS. The two offenses that drove the greatest percentage of increase over the study period involved immigration and firearms offenses. Drug offenses had a powerful effect on both the number of persons sentenced to prison and the number entering PCS. All of the factors identified in this article as contributing to the rates at which offenders are sentenced to prison and admitted to PCS must be taken into account when projecting the number of offenders entering supervision in the Federal probation system. 5 figures, 9 tables, and 29 notes