NCJ Number
40060
Journal
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 14 Issue: 1 Dated: (JANUARY 1977) Pages: 107-128
Date Published
1977
Length
22 pages
Annotation
THIS ARTICLE ATTEMPTS, USING LONG-TERM CRIME DATA AND DEMOGRAPHIC SUBSETS THEREOF, TO CONSTRUCT A HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF THE RAPID GROWTH OF THE CRIME RATE IN RECENT YEARS.
Abstract
USING FBI INDEX CRIME DATA FROM 1937-71, STATISTICALLY CORRECTED FOR DIFFERENCES IN REPORTING RATES, THE AUTHOR REVIEWS VARIOUS THEORIES PURPORTING TO EXPLAIN THE PRECIPITOUS INCREASE OF CRIME RECENTLY. A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS COMBINING DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, LOGARITHMIC AND LINEAR SCALES FINDS THAT THE ABNORMAL GROWTH OF CRIME SINCE 1955 IS INEXPLICABLE IN TERMS OF TRADITIONAL THEORIES. HYPOTHESES DISCUSSED AND DISMISSED ARE THAT: 1) THE RISE IN INDEX CRIME IS DUE TO THE INCREASED FREQUENCY WITH WHICH CRIMES ARE REPORTED TO THE POLICE: 2) URBAN CROWDING HAS INCREASED TENSION AND THEREFORE CRIME; AND 3) THE INCREASING LENIENCY OF THE JUDICIAL PROCESS HAS FOSTERED HIGHER CRIME RATES. THE ARTICLE CONCLUDES THAT THE ONLY STATISTICALLY EXPLICABLE HYPOTHESIS IS THE DRUG ABUSE PHENOMENON. COMBINED WITH A MASSIVE URBAN MIGRATION, THE DRUG ABUSE PHENOMENON IS CORRELATED TO THE 1955-71 CRIME WAVE. STATISTICALLY, THE DRUG ABUSE HYPOTHESIS CONTAINS A FEEDBACK LOOP, WHICH ADDS PLAUSIBILITY TO THE ARGUMENT THAT THE CRIMINAL POPULATION INCREASED BECAUSE OF THE EPIDEMIC SPREAD OF DRUG USE....MSP