NCJ Number
51018
Date Published
1977
Length
170 pages
Annotation
SEVERAL HYPOTHESES PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF PAST SUCCESS OR FAILURE ON FUTURE TERRORIST BEHAVIOR ARE TESTED WITH A DISTRIBUTED LAG REGRESSION MODEL. FEEDBACK PROCESSES ARE DISCUSSED, AS ARE TERRORIST GOALS.
Abstract
THE FIRST SECTION OF THIS DISSERTATION DISCUSSES INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE AS GOAL-ORIENTED, PURPOSEFUL BEHAVIOR. FEEDBACK INFLUENCES ARE IDENTIFIED, THE CYBERNETIC MODEL USED FOR THIS RESEARCH IS DESCRIBED, AND THE PARTICULAR ADAPTATIONS OF THE CYBERNETIC MODEL REQUIRED TO TEST THESE DATA ARE EXPLAINED. BASICALLY, THIS MODEL IS A COMMUNICATIONS APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF FOREIGN POLICY AND HOLDS THAT SUCCESS OR FAILURE IS A FUNCTION OF BOTH TIME LAG AND TOTAL GAIN OR LOSS. DATA SOURCES FOR THE RESEARCH ARE ALSO DISCUSSED. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFICULTY OF VERIFYING INCIDENTS INVOLVING ONLY COUNTRIES OTHER THAN THE UNITED STATES, THIS RESEARCH IS LIMITED TO 204 TERRORIST INCIDENTS, WICH OCCURRED BETWEEN JANUARY 1968 AND APRIL 1974, AND WHICH TOOK PLACE EITHER IN THE UNITED STATES OR INVOLVED THE UNITED STATES AS VICTIM. EARLIER RESEARCHERS HAVE HYPOTHESIZED THAT SUCESS INCREASES THE NUMBER OF TERRORIST ATTACKS WHILE FAILURE DECREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF FUTURE ATTACKS. THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS MAY BE JUST THE OPPOSITE. TERRORISTS USUALLY HAVE CAREFULLY THOUGHT-OUT PLANS. WHEN AN ATTACK SUCCEEDS, FOLLOWUP ATTACKS MAY OCCUR FOR 1 MONTH, AND THEN, OBJECTIVES ACHIEVED, THE GROUP WITHDRAWS. HOWEVER, OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, SUCCESS LEADS OTHER GROUPS TO TRY THE SAME TACTICS. EFFECTS OF FAILURE ARE ALSO TIME-DEPENDENT. AN INITIAL FAILURE MAY RESULT IN INCREASED ATTACKS FOR 2 OR 3 MONTHS. IF THESE RENEWED EFFORTS FAIL, THE ATTACK RATE DROPS SHARPLY. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT CONSISTENT FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DETERRENCE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS. CHARTS AND GRAPHS ILLUSTRATE THE PATTERNS FOUND. THE SOURCES OF THE DATA AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE APPENDED. (GLR).