FELONY INVESTIGATION DECISION MODEL - AN ANALYSIS OF INVESTIGATIVE ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION

• NCJ Number: 35741
• Author(s): B GREENBERG; C V ELLIOTT; L P KRAFT; H S PROCTER
• Date Published: 1977
• Length: 237 pages
• Grant Number(s): 75-NI-99-0021
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice
• Corporate Author: Stanford Research Institute
• Sale Source: Superintendent of Documents, GPO; National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS REPORT, PRESENTING RESEARCH PERFORMED IN OAKLAND, CALIF., DEVELOPS DECISION MODELS FOR FELONY CLASSES TO IDENTIFY CASES HAVING SUFFICIENT PROBABILITY OF CLEARANCE TO WARRANT INTENSIVE INVESTIGATION.

Abstract

THE FELONIES INVOLVED WERE ROBBERY, RAPE, ASSAULT WITH A DEADLY WEAPON, AND CAR THEFT. DATA WERE CODED FOR THESE FOUR CRIMES FOR A 3-MONTH PERIOD IN OAKLAND. ONLY FOR ROBBERY WAS IT FOUND FEASIBLE TO CONSTRUCT A DECISION MODEL. PRIMARY CASE-SOLUTION FACTORS (SUCH AS VICTIM KNOWLEDGE OF OFFENDER) STATISTICALLY DOMINATED OTHER, RANDOM FACTORS. THE FINDINGS SHOWED THAT, UNLESS OFFENDER ID WAS MADE BY RESPONDING OFFICERS, CASE SOLUTION AT THE DETECTIVE LEVEL WAS MINIMAL. THEREFORE, IT WAS CONCLUDED THAT PATROL AND INVESTIGATIVE FUNCTIONS CANNOT BE VIEWED AS COMPLETELY SEPARATE. DOCUMENTATION OF RELEVANT CRIME SCENE INFORMATION BY PATROL WAS FOUND TO HEAVILY INFLUENCE CASE SOLUTION BY INVESTIGATORS. THE FINDINGS REINFORCED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ISSUE OF HABITAUL OFFENDERS. ANALYSES OF THE FELONY CASE SAMPLE DRAWN SHOWED 80-88 PERCENT OF THE SUSPECTS HAD PRIOR OFFENSES. CONFRONTED BY SIMILAR EXPERIENCE MANY POLICE AGENCIES HAVE TURNED TO COMPUTER-BASED M.O.-TYPE INVESTIGATIVE SYSTEMS TO ASSIST IN TRACKING AND IDENTIFYING KNOWN OFFENDERS. HOWEVER, IT IS SAID THAT SUCH SYSTEMS HAVE YET TO DEMONSTRATE MARKED SUCCESS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)