FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS - INMATE POPULATION PROJECTIONS - SLAM (SIMULATED LOSSES/ADMISSION MODEL) PHASE 2 - RESEARCH REPORT

• NCJ Number: 55386
• Author(s): ANON
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 88 pages
• Corporate Author: Florida Bureau of Statistics, Research and Planning; Florida Dept of Offender Rehabilitation
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

PHASE TWO OF A TWO PHASE PROJECT, THIS REPORT PRESENTS A REVISED METHODOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING ESTIMATES OF FUTURE INMATE POPULATION LEVELS FOR THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS.

Abstract

THE REPORT ON PHASE I OF THIS PROJECT PRESENTED A METHODOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING FORECASTS OF GROWTH OR DECLINE OF THE FLORIDA INMATE POPULATION USING A COMPUTER-BASED, INPUT/OUTPUT MODEL KNOWN AS SIMULATED LOSSES/ADMISSIONS MODEL (SLAM)--PHASE I. DUE TO ERRORS REVEALED IN THE TESTING OF THAT MODEL, PHASE II UNDERTOOK TO REVISE THE MODEL TO PRODUCE GREATER ACCURACY. IN THIS REPORT, A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE SLAM-PHASE I PROJECTIONS ARE PRESENTED. THE ANALYSIS IS BASED UPON THE MONTH-BY-MONTH MONITORING DONE OVER THE PAST YEAR TO VALIDATE THE PROJECTIONS. INCLUDED IS A BRIEF COMPARISON OF PAST PROJECTIONS PUBLISHED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS BASED UPON A NUMBER OF STATISTICAL METHODS LEADING TO SLAM-PHASE I AND SLAM-PHASE II. A GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF SLAMS-PHASE II FOLLOWS THIS ANALYSIS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS AND OTHER MODELS AND METHODS PREVIOUSLY USED BY THE DEPARTMENT IS THE USE OF 'PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS.' THESE FUNCTIONS WERE DEVELOPED TO DETERMINE THE MOST LIKELY DATES OF RELEASE OF OFFENDERS WITHIN 14 LENGTH-OF-SENTENCE CATEGORIES. THEY ARE BASED UPON THE AMOUNT OF TIME SERVED TO DATE BY PERSONS NOT YET RELEASED, AS WELL AS THE TIME SERVED BY THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN RELEASED OVER A 3-YEAR PERIOD COVERING FISCAL YEAR 1974 TO 1975 THROUGH FISCAL YEAR 1976 TO 1977. FOLLOWING THE GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE SLAM-II METHODOLOGY, THERE IS A DISCUSSION OF THE APPLICATION OF THIS METHODOLOGY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ACTUAL INMATE POPULATION FORECASTS PRESENTED FOR FISCAL YEAR 1977 TO 1978 THROUGH FISCAL YEAR 1977 TO 1978 AND FOR FISCAL YEAR 1977 TO 1978 THROUGH FISCAL YEAR 1999 TO 2000. THE APPENDIXES CONTAIN A TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION OF THE SLAM-II COMPUTER PROGRAM, A FORTRAN PROGRAM USED TO GENERATE THE INCARCERATION PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS, A COPY OF THE FORTRAN PROGRAM USED TO GENERATE THE PROJECTED RELEASES AND TO COMPUTE THE INMATE POPULATION FORECAST, AND DATA TABLES RELATED TO VARIABLES CONSIDERED IN THE SLAM-II METHODOLOGY. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--RCB)