NCJ Number
57406
Date Published
1979
Length
74 pages
Annotation
THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR DEFENSE MANAGEMENT CASELOAD FORECASTING METHOD WHICH USES PRIOR CASELOAD DATA TO PREDICT SHIFTS IN CASELOAD TREND IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL.
Abstract
THE PROPOSED METHOD, A WEIGHTING SYSTEM PROVIDING A MOVING AVERAGE AND USING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, REQUIRES PUBLIC DEFENDER OFFICE COMMITMENT TO ORGANIZING AN INFORMATION SYSTEM THAT REFLECTS THE WORK EACH OFFICE PERFORMS, AND EVALUATION AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE WORK PERFORMED BY EACH OFFICE--HOW OFTEN THE OFFICE IS PERFORMING VARIOUS TASKS, AND AT THE TIME INTERVALS INVOLVED. THE DEFENDER OFFICE MUST ALSO ASSESS THE IMPACT ON WORKLOAD OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF CASES AND DIFFERENT TYPES OF CLIENTS. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA TO BE USED IN FORECASTING SHOULD INCLUDE CASELOAD ASSIGNMENTS BY CHARGE TYPE, THE ANNUAL RECORD VOLUME FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL CHARGE CATEGORY, THE MEDIAN TIME IN DAYS REQUIRED FROM INTAKE TO EACH CASE PROCESSING POINT AND THEN TO CASE EXIT, CATEGORIES OF WORK PERFORMED BY EACH DEFENDER STAFF MEMBER, APPEARANCE DATA OR THE CALENDARING WEIGHT (RECORDING THE NUMBER OF APPEARANCES FOR EACH MAJOR CHARGE TO REACH EACH BRANCHING POINT WITHIN THE CASE PROCESSING SYSTEM), AND CLIENT DATA. THE FORECASTING SYSTEM CAN BE USED TO SUPPORT AND JUSTIFY BUDGETARY REQUESTS, AND CAN PROVIDE THE DEFENDER WITH AN EVALUATION PROCESS FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT AND TO PLAN FOR CHANGES IN BOTH STRUCTURE AND PROCESS. ITS ADVANTAGES ARE ITS SIMPLICITY, ECONOMY, AND FLEXIBILITY (DEFENDERS CAN CHOOSE FROM AMONG THE DATA ELEMENTS AND PROCESSES THAT FIT THEIR OFFICE'S TIME AND PERSONNEL CONSTRAINTS). THE FORECASTING SYSTEM IS DETAILED IN THIS REPORT; THE APPENDIXES CONTAIN OTHER CASELOAD PREDICTION SYSTEMS DEVELOPED BY CALIFORNIA'S SUPERIOR AND MUNICIPAL COURTS, THE MICHIGAN CIRCUIT COURTS, THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR DEFENSE MANAGEMENT--THE EARLIER 'WISCONSIN PROJECT', AND THE FEDERAL JUDICIAL CENTER. MATHEMATICAL FORMULAS AND TABLES ARE PROVIDED. (DAG)