FORECASTING CRIME DATA - AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

• NCJ Number: 47193
• Author(s): J A FOX
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 140 pages
• Corporate Author: Lexington Books
• Sale Source: Lexington Books
• Publication Type: Program Description (Model)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

DESCRIPTIVE MODELS FOR CRIME RATES AND OTHER VARIABLES ARE DEVELOPED AND EQUATION MODELS FOR THE INTERRELATION OF THESE AND DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES ARE INVESTIGATED.

Abstract

A SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODEL OF NATIONAL CRIME TRENDS LEADING TO THE GENERATION OF FORECASTS FOR THE YEARS THROUGH 2000 IS PRESENTED. THE MODEL UTILIZES ANNUAL NATIONAL DATA FOR THE YEARS 1950 THROUGH 1974, AND THE NECESSARY DATA SOURCES INCLUDE DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES SUCH AS ESTIMATES OF POPULATION BROKEN DOWN BY RACE AND AGE, ECONOMIC VARIABLES LIKE THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, POLICE EXPENDITURE FIGURES, THE SIZE OF THE POLICE FORCE IN RELATION TO POPULATION, CRIME RATES, CLEARANCE RATES, AND ARREST RATES. THE RESULTS INDICATE A GENERAL REDUCTION IN THE UPWARD TREND IN CRIME RATES DURING THE 1980'S AND AN INCREASE DURING THE 1990'S. THE VIOLENT CRIME RATE SHOULD DECLINE IN THE 1980'S BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN IN THE 1990'S. THE FORECASTS OF OTHER VARIABLES REVEAL PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE CRIME RATES; THIS SIMILARITY IS EXPECTED BECAUSE THE MODEL PRODUCES FORECASTS OF AN ENTIRE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OF ISOLATED VARIABLES. THE FORECASTING OF FUTURE TRENDS AS A LOGICAL PROGRESSION FROM PAST TRENDS IS DISCUSSED. THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC COMPONENTS OF THE CRIME RATE ARE EXAMINED; THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CRIME RATE AND FLUCTUATIONS AND CHANGES IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND THE AGE-RACE DISTRIBUTION, AMONG OTHER VARIABLES, ARE DISCUSSED. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE SIZEABLE INCREASES IN THE CRIME RATE DURING THE 1960'S APPEAR TO BE LARGELY A RESULT OF A PERTURBATION IN THE BIRTH RATE DURING THE POSTWAR YEARS AND THAT ALTHOUGH THE CRIME RATE FOLLOWS A CYCLICAL PATTERN, THE EXPERIENCE OF THE 1960'S SHOULD NOT RECUR UNLESS SOME EVENT CAUSES ANOTHER ARTIFICIAL LEAP IN THE BIRTH RATE. GRAPHIC AND TABULAR MATERIAL DETAIL THE FUNCTION AND FINDINGS OF THE MODEL. APPENDIXES CONTAINING A LIST OF DATA, DETAILING SEGMENTED FUNCTIONS, INTRODUCING THE HUDSON PROGRAM, PROVIDING TECHNICAL NOTES ON THE POLICE EXPENDITURE EQUATION AND A SELECTION OF EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ARE INCLUDED. REFERENCES AND AN INDEX ARE ALSO PROVIDED. (KBL)