FORECASTING JUVENILE DELINQUENCY TRENDS IN THE STATE OF UTAH

• NCJ Number: 57603
• Journal: INTERMOUNTAIN ECONOMIC REVIEW Volume: 8 Issue: 2 Dated: (FALL 1977) Pages: 66-71
• Author(s): D MACDONALD
• Date Published: 1977
• Length: 6 pages
• Corporate Author: Intermountain Economic Review University of Utah
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

A MODEL TO FORECAST JUVENILE DELINQUENCY REFERRALS IS DEVELOPED TO ENHANCE THE BUDGETING PROCESS BY HELPING TO DETERMINE MANPOWER NEEDS AND TO GIVE SOME CLUES AS TO THE CAUSES OF DELINQUENCY.

Abstract

MULTIPLE REGRESSION WAS USED IN A DELINQUENCY STUDY OF REFERRALS BETWEEN 1941 AND 1975. THE JUVENILE DELINQUENCY RATE WAS ASSUMED TO BE A COMPOSITE FUNCTION OF POVERTY, UTAH PER CAPITA INCOME, AN INDEX OF TELEVISION VIOLENCE, THE STATE DIVORCE RATE, AND A DUMMY VARIABLE FOR CHANGES IN LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT PROCESSES DURING THE YEAR 1975. SIMPLE CORRELATION RESULTS INDICATE THAT THESE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES EACH EXPLAINED THE FOLLOWING AMOUNT OF TOTAL VARIATION IN ADJUSTED DELINQUENCY REFERRALS: DIVORCE RATE 26.9 PERCENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 49.4 PERCENT, AFDC PAYMENTS 18.3 PERCENT, PER CAPITA INCOME (1967) 92.1 PERCENT, TELEVISION VIOLENCE 47.7 PERCENT. IT WAS FOUND THAT THE REFERRAL PROCESS DUMMY VARIABLE DID NOT HAVE THE ANTICIPATED NEGATIVE COEFFICIENT AND AFDC PAYMENTS WERE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT. PER CAPITA INCOME EXPLAINED MOST OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT VARIABLE. FOR THESE REASONS, THE AFDC PAYMENTS AND DUMMY VARIABLES WERE DROPPED. ADJUSTED REFERRALS WERE REGRESSED AGAINST THE DIVORCE RATE, PER CAPITA INCOME, AND A NEW VARIABLE FOR TELEVISION VIOLENCE. RESULTS SHOWED THAT BOTH THE DIVORCE RATE AND THE PER CAPITA INCOME VARIABLES WERE SIGNIFICANT AT THE 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL. IN THE FINAL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP A STATISTICALLY SOUND EQUATION TO FORECAST THE DELINQUENCY RATE, THE ANNUAL DIVORCE RATE VARIABLE WAS REPLACED BY A 3-YEAR AVERAGE DIVORCE RATE TO ALLOW FOR THE LONG-RUN IMPACT OF DIVORCE ON ADOLESCENT BEHAVIOR. EMPIRICAL STUDIES HAVE VERIFIED THAT THE DISSOLUTION OF THE HOME AND FAMILIES CONTRIBUTE TO JUVENILE DELINQUENCY. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN THIS STUDY INDICATES THAT POVERTY MAY NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN EXPLAINING JUVENILE CRIME IN UTAH. ALSO, THE IMPACT OF TELEVISION VIOLENCE ON THE DELINQUENCY RATE SHOULD BE FURTHER EXPLORED. TABLES AND FOOTNOTES ARE INCLUDED. (STB)