NCJ Number
176671
Date Published
1995
Length
108 pages
Annotation
This report describes the Prison Population Forecasting Model.
Abstract
This model forecasts the numbers and types of male inmates for the next decade. These data will be useful in predicting the potential impact of new policies, legislative changes and emerging trends. The assumptions of the model can be altered to simulate the impact of a proposed change prior to implementation of the change. The model highlights key factors affecting the size of the prison population and the interrelationships between parts of the justice system. This knowledge can be used to further improve forecasting methods, to indicate what aspects of the system can be manipulated to minimize inmate numbers, or to describe the impact of changes on other parts of the justice system. The report summarizes the structure of the model, the information on trends and relationships which define the assumptions of the model and the output and testing of the model. It also outlines a much simplified model for forecasting female prison populations and examines custodial remand numbers. Figures, tables, notes, references, appendix