NCJ Number
195184
Date Published
December 2001
Length
21 pages
Annotation
In compliance with the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence's request that the Intelligence Community (IC) produce annual reports that contain the latest intelligence on ballistic missile developments and threats and a discussion of nonmissile threat options, this paper is an unclassified summary of the fourth annual report of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE).
Abstract
One of the key judgements is that before 2015, the United States most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea, Iran, and possibly Irag, barring significant changes in their political orientations, in addition to the longstanding missile forces of Russia and China. Further, short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles already pose a significant threat overseas to U.S. interests, military forces, and allies. Another key judgment is that unless Moscow significantly increases funding for its strategic forces, the Russian arsenal will decline to less than 2,000 warheads by 2015, with or without arms control. The IC projects that Chinese ballistic missile forces will increase several-fold by 2015, but Beijing's future ICBM force deployed primarily against the United States (75 to 100 warheads) will remain considerably smaller and less capable than the strategic missile forces of Russia and the United States. North Korea's multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized (several hundred KG) payload, may be ready for flight-testing. Iran is pursuing short-range and long-range missile capabilities. Iraq, constrained by international sanctions and prohibitions, wants a long-range missile and probably retains a small, covert force of Scud-variant missiles. Several countries could develop a mechanism to launch submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SRBMs), medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), or land-attack cruise missiles from forward-based ships or other platforms; a few are likely to do so (more likely for cruise missiles) before 2015. Finally, foreign nonstate actors -- including terrorist, insurgent, or extremist groups that have threatened or have the ability to attack the United States or its interests -- have expressed an interest in chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) materials. Concern remains for threats of nonmissile weapons of mass destruction that may be delivered to the United States by ships, trucks, airplanes, and other means. The IC judges that U.S. territory is more likely to be attacked by these means.