FURTHER FINDINGS ON THE DETERRENCE QUESTION AND STRATEGIES FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

• NCJ Number: 38237
• Journal: Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 4 Issue: 3 Dated: (FALL 1976) Pages: 175-189
• Author(s): M L ERICKSON; J P GIBBS
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 15 pages
• Corporate Author: Pergamon Press, Inc
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS STUDY EXAMINES RECENT DATA ON CRIME RATES, CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT, AND SEVERITY OF PUNISHMENT TO TEST THE VALIDITY OF THE DETERRENCE DOCTRINE, AND OUTLINES A PROPOSED STRATEGY FOR CONTINUED RESEARCH ON DETERRENCE.

Abstract

DATA WAS GATHERED FROM SUCH SOURCES AS THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION AND THE BUREAU OF PRISONS. THE DATA SHOWED THAT FOR EACH OF SEVEN TYPES OF CRIME THERE IS AN INVERSE RELATION AMONG THE STATES OF THE U.S. BETWEEN THE RATE AND THE CERTAINTY OF IMPRISONMENT, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT RELATION BETWEEN THE RATE AND SEVERITY OF IMPRISONMENT (LENGTH OF SENTENCE SERVED). THE AUTHOR STATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE FINDINGS JUSTIFY RECONSIDERATION OF THE DETERRENCE DOCTRINE, THE UTILITY OF FURTHER TESTS IS QUESTIONABLE WITHOUT FIRST RESTATING THE DOCTRINE AS A SYSTEMATIC THEORY, ONE THAT INCORPORATES PERCEPTUAL VARIABLES PERTAINING TO PUNISHMENT (E.G., PERCEIVED CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT). THE AUTHOR CONCLUDES THAT SEVERAL EMPIRICAL QUESTIONS SHOULD BE CONTEMPLATED PRIOR TO STARTING A DETERRENCE THEORY, AND STATES THAT CONVENTIONAL DATA (E.G., PUBLISHED STATISTICS ON IMPRISONMENT) CAN BE USED TO ANSWER SOME OF THOSE QUESTIONS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)