Future of Prediction - Rights, Duties, and Loose Concepts (From Prediction of Criminal Violence, P 21-34, 1987, Fernand N Dutile and Cleon H Foust, eds. - See NCJ-104584)

• NCJ Number: 104586
• Author(s): J P Conrad
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 14 pages
• Sale Source: Charles C. Thomas
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS.

Annotation

Under the belief that the primary goal of sentencing should be just punishment, sentence severity should be proportional to the severity of the current offense, except when an offender's past behavior shows a convincing inclination toward violence.

Abstract

An offender's right to a sentence proportional to the current offense may be overridden by the competing right of the community to be protected from a dangerous offender. A sentencing authority wishing to neutralize the dangerous offender must have some basis for predicting dangerousness. None of the predictive resources, whether clinical or statistical, has a high percentage of accuracy. For this reason an offender's right to punishment proportionate to the current offense should not be overridden unless an offender's past behavior shows a consistent pattern of frequent violence. The indiscriminate application of disproportionately severe sentences to all persons convicted of violent offenses, without regard to recidivism, violates the ethical standards that should govern the administration of justice. 31 notes.