NCJ Number
60748
Journal
Canadian Police College Journal Volume: 3 Issue: 2 Dated: (1979) Pages: 89-114
Date Published
1979
Length
24 pages
Annotation
RESULTS OF A CANADIAN CRIME-TREND FORECAST FOR THE YEARS 1978 TO 1984 ARE EXAMINED IN CONJUNCTION WITH PAST FORECASTS AND FORECASTING METHODS IN GENERAL.
Abstract
CRIMINOLOGICAL FORECASTING ATTEMPTS TO PREDICT FUTURE STATES OF VARIOUS ASPECTS OF THE CRIME-CONTROL SYSTEM AND ITS ENVIRONMENT, SUCH AS CRIMINAL POLICIES AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT, NUMBERS OF DIFFERENT CRIMES REPORTED TO THE POLICE, AND THE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIOECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES FOR CRIME AND CRIME CONTROL. A FORECAST MAY DESCRIBE WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR MAY PRESCRIBE WHAT SHOULD BE DONE TO REACH CERTAIN GOALS. A REVIEW OF EARLIER QUALITATIVE CRIMINOLOGICAL FORECASTS MADE IN CANADA SHOWS THAT A CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE CRIME RATE, BUT AT A DECREASING RATE OF GROWTH, WAS EXPECTED, WHILE MORE RECENT QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS BOTH FOR THE U.S. AND CANADA INDICATE A LEVELING OFF OR EVEN A DECREASE IN THE RATES OF SEVERAL OFFENSES. THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO A DECLINING PROPORTION OF YOUNG MALES IN THE POPULATION. RESULTS OF A CRIME-TREND FORECAST FOR THE YEARS 1978-1984 SHOW THAT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE, THE NUMBER OF HOMICIDES, WOUNDINGS, THEFTS, AND THE TOTALS OF CRIMINAL CODE AND ALL OFFENSES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY. HOWEVER, THE NUMBER OF BREAK-INS AND OFFENSIVE WEAPONS INFRACTIONS WILL LEVEL OFF AND THE NUMBER OF RAPES, ASSAULTS, THEFTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES, AND FRAUDS WILL DECREASE. THE CONSEQUENCES OF A DECREASE OR INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF POLICE OFFICERS ON THE INCIDENCE OF VARIOUS CRIMES ARE DISCUSSED. TABULAR DATA, FIGURES, AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (PRG)