NCJ Number
54432
Date Published
1978
Length
253 pages
Annotation
PROJECTS OF ADULT AND JUVENILE ARRESTS FOR EACH JURISDICTION IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND ARE MADE THROUGH THE YEAR 1990, AND AN ARREST PROJECTION MODEL IS DESCRIBED.
Abstract
THE ARREST PROJECTION MODEL WAS DEVELOPED TO PROVIDE POLICYMAKERS, ADMINISTRATORS, AND PLANNERS IN CRIMINAL AND JUVENILE JUSTICE AREAS WITH INFORMATION THAT MIGHT BE USEFUL IN ANTICIPATING FUTURE NEEDS AND OBJECTIVES. THE MODEL OPERATES UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT ARRESTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE NUMERICALLY RELATED TO DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS IN THE POPULATION, SUCH AS AGE, RACE, SEX, AND POPULATION DENSITY. ARREST RATES BY JURISDICTION FOR A GIVEN TYPE OF CRIME AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS WERE GENERATED PER 100,000 OF THE GENERAL POPULATION WITH THE SAME DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS. THEY WERE CALCULATED BY DIVIDING THE NUMBER OF ARRESTS FOR A PARTICULAR CRIME AND ARREST GROUP BY THE TOTAL POPULATION OF A GROUP WITH SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS. ARREST RATE RELATIONSHIPS PROVIDED A BASIS FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE VOLUMES OF ARRESTS BASED ON CHANGES OVER TIME IN THE DEMOGRAPHIC MIX OF A JURISDICTION'S POPULATION. ARREST PROJECTIONS WERE MADE FOR 1980, 1985, AND 1990 USING ARREST DATA FOR 1975, 1976, AND 1977. CRIME GROUPINGS SELECTED FOR ANALYSIS WERE CRIMINAL HOMICIDE, FORCIBLE RAPE, AGGRAVATED ASSAULT, ROBBERY, BURGLARY, LARCENY, MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT, AND ALL OTHER OFFENSES AND TYPES OF ASSAULTS. AGE GROUPINGS RANGED FROM 0-12 YEARS UP TO 40 YEARS AND OLDER. THE RESULTS OF THE PROJECTIONS SHOW AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN TOTAL ADULT ARRESTS OVER THE PERIOD 1977-1990 OF APPROXIMATELY 20 PERCENT STATEWIDE AND AN ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN JUVENILE ARRESTS OF APPROXIMATELY 3 PERCENT STATEWIDE FOR THE SAME PERIOD. SUPPORTING DATA ARE PROVIDED. ADDITIONAL DATA AND ILLUSTRATIONS ON ARREST RATE PROJECTIONS ARE PROVIDED IN APPENDIXES. (DEP)