NCJ Number
164714
Journal
Transnational Organized Crime Volume: 1 Issue: 4 Dated: (Winter 1995) Pages: 134-149
Date Published
1995
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This article presents a method for deriving a global illicit- drug interception rate, while acknowledging its limitations and possibilities for improvement; and it develops and describes apparent trends in the interception rate for opiates and cocaine between 1980 and 1994.
Abstract
The two data sources used are the most comprehensive datasets currently available that relate to global estimates of illicit production and manufacture, as well as global seizures of drugs in the illicit traffic. The main source of estimates of illicit crop cultivation, drug production, and manufacture is the U.S. State Department. The seizure data used in this study are taken from United Nations public documents. Global production and manufacturing estimates are compared to global seizure reports to estimate the proportion of illicit drug trafficking that is intercepted. While cocaine and heroin manufacturing and trafficking have increased rapidly over the last decade, the proportion of global cocaine trafficked that was intercepted increased rapidly in the 1980's and is greater than that of opiates. In the first half of the 1990's, perhaps one- third or more of the cocaine that was trafficked was intercepted, compared to less than one-fifth of opiates. These differences were due to the increased enforcement effort of the United Sates. In measuring the impact of these enforcement efforts, however, it must be recognized that the dynamics of trafficking by rational economic actors are such that interception does not cause a proportional reduction in consumption and may even drive increases in crop cultivation and illicit manufacturing. In addition, the actual interception rate for opiates and cocaine appears to be far below that which would be necessary to make illicit trafficking unprofitable. Suggestions for future research are offered. 8 figures and 23 notes