NCJ Number
124384
Date Published
1986
Length
36 pages
Annotation
This forecast of California's prison population concludes that by 1995 the male prison population will be greater than 100,000 and that 60 percent of these inmates will be black or Hispanic even though they represent 30 percent of the State's population.
Abstract
The forecast used several types of data not usually considered by the California Department of Corrections (CDC) in its forecast. These trends included the rates of imprisonment of blacks and Hispanics and the role of criminal justice policies. The analysis also concluded that 50,000 new prison cells are needed by 1995, in addition to the 19,000 beds being built over the next 5 years. In addition, legislation that has lengthened prison terms is the main source of the population increase. Finally, the CDC forecasting techniques could be significantly improved through the use of separate data by race and offense characteristics, the improvement of offender tracking in relation to work incentive credits and parole violators, strengthening of the CDC's research capabilities, and the use of 10-year projections. Figures and tables.