NCJ Number
171971
Journal
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 13 Issue: 4 Dated: (December 1997) Pages: 429-467
Date Published
1997
Length
39 pages
Annotation
Multilevel growth curve models provide a means of analyzing individual differences in the growth of deviance, allow a number of theories to be integrated in a single model, and unify research on deviant-delinquent-criminal careers at different stages of the life cycle.
Abstract
Building on the distinction between "population heterogeneity" and "state dependence" as alternative explanations of persistent individual differences in deviance, the authors show models with two levels can be used to represent and analyze a variety of criminological theories. The first level uses repeated measurements on individuals to estimate individual-level growth curves. The second level treats the first level growth curve parameters as outcome variables and uses time-invariant factors to explain variation in these parameters across individuals. This approach is illustrated by estimating a model of growth in deviance drawn from the deviant propensity theory of Gottfredson and Hirschi. An innovative feature is the assumption that expected growth curves of adolescent deviance follow a classical Pearl-Verhulst logistic growth model. Results suggest five risk factors--parental psychiatric problems, lack of parental support, living arrangements with zero or one parent in residence, low family income, and male gender--have strongly positive effects on deviant propensity. Even so, much of the individual variability in growth curves is not explained by the five risk factors. 78 references and 7 tables