Guideline-based Justice: Prediction and Racial Minorities (From Prediction and Classification: Criminal Justice Decision Making, P 151-181, 1987, Don M. Gottfredson and Michael Tonry, eds. -- See NCJ-116250)

• NCJ Number: 116254
• Author(s): J Petersilia; S Turner
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 31 pages
• Sale Source: University of Chicago Press
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS.

Annotation

This study examines four areas: factors included in sentencing, probation, and parole guidelines; correlations between these factors and race and recidivism; accurately predicting recidivism using only factors not racially correlated; and whether sentencing reform can overcome racial disparities without jeopardizing its objectives.

Abstract

Some argue that the use of certain factors in sentencing guidelines adopted by many States adversely affects minority offenders. Using data on over 16,500 offenders convicted of felonies in California in 1980, this study calculated race and recidivism correlations for all convicted felons, for probationers, and for prisoners. When all factors were used, accuracy in predicting rearrests was seldom greater than a 20 percent improvement over chance. Using factors that were not racially correlated increased predictive accuracy from 3 to 9 percent above chance. Including racially correlated factors added another 5 to 12 percent to predictive accuracy. The authors conclude that racially correlated factors cannot be omitted from guidelines unless society is willing to treat serious offenders less severely because many are black. Tables and over 20 references. (Author abstract modified)