NCJ Number
219288
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 47 Issue: 3 Dated: May 2007 Pages: 455-469
Date Published
May 2007
Length
15 pages
Annotation
This study analyzed whether the controversial 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) in Australian, which comprised a buy-back of longarms and the implementation of tighter gun control legislation, had an impact on the rates of homicide, suicide, and accidental death.
Abstract
Overall, there was insufficient evidence to support the argument that simply reducing the number of legally held civilian firearms will reduce either firearm homicides or accidental deaths. Specifically, the results revealed that only firearm suicide was significantly impacted by the more restrictive NFA gun control legislation in Australia. However, the authors warn that other societal factors might have had an impact on changes in firearm suicide rates in Australia. Rates of homicide and accidental death did not significantly decrease following the 1996 NFA legislation. The findings have substantial implications for future gun control policy, not only in Australia, but across the globe. The authors recommend that future firearms policies be developed using empirical data, careful evaluation, and community understanding and acceptance of the proposed legislation. The research methodology involved a natural experiment that compared trends in rates of homicide, suicide, and accidental death over time, with an emphasis on the time periods before and after the implementation of the NFA in 1996. Data for the period 1979 through 2004 were drawn from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Institute of Criminology, and the National Injury Surveillance Unit. All statistics were standardized to rates per 100,000 population. Data were analyzed using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) in order to predict future values of the time series for the impact of the 1996 NFA on homicide, suicide, and accidental death. Figures, tables, footnotes, and references