NCJ Number
51707
Editor(s)
J FOWLES
Date Published
1978
Length
834 pages
Annotation
THE GROWTH, DIFFICULTIES, AND PROCEDURES OF FUTURE RESEARCH ARE EXAMINED, ALONG WITH THE FIELDS'S SUBSTANTIVE AREAS AND CHALLENGES, IN THIS ANTHOLOGY CONTAINING 46 ARTICLES.
Abstract
FUTURES RESEARCH IS EXPLORED IN TERMS OF ITS EMERGENCE, GLOBAL DIFFUSION, AND APPLICATION IN JAPAN. THE FALLIBILITY OF FUTURES RESEARCH METHODS AND OF FUTURISTS THEMSELVES IS UNDERSCORED WITH ATTENTION TO THE PROBLEMS OF PROBING THE FUTURE, METHODOLOGICAL SHORTCOMINGS, THE IDEOLOGIES OF FUTURISTS, THE PROBLEM OF VALUES IN FUTURES RESEARCH, AND THE PHENOMENON OF SELF-ALTERING PREDICTIONS (I.E., SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY, SELF-DEFEATING PROPHECY, SELF-ALTERING PROPHECY, REFLEXIVE PREDICTIONS). THE FOLLOWING PROCEDURES COMMONLY UTILIZED AND DEBATED IN FUTURES RESEARCH ARE DISCUSSED: SCENARIOS, TREND EXTRAPOLATION, THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE, CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS, SIMULATION MODELING AND GAMING, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND ASSESSMENT, AND SOCIAL INDICATORS AND SOCIAL FORECASTING. THE PRACTICE OF INTUITION AND THE UTILITY OF SCIENCE FICTION ARE CONSIDERED. THE CONTENT AREAS OF FUTURES RESEARCH AND THE SUBSTANTIVE AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG FUTURISTS ARE OUTLINED WITH RESPECT TO OPTIMISTIC AND PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOKS, THE POSTINDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AND THE EMERGING COUNTERECONOMY, FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH, FOOD PRODUCTION, FORECASTS FOR NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES, ENERGY SOURCES, IMPENDING ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE, URBAN AND GLOBAL FUTURES, SETTLEMENTS IN SPACE, COMMUNICATION, BIOMEDICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL ISSUES, EDUCATION, AND POLITICS. FINALLY THE CHALLENGES OF FUTURES RESEARCH ARE OUTLINED, INCLUDING EXISTING RESEARCH TASKS, MISSION PLANNING, AND THE CHANGING NEEDS AND DIRECTIONS IN FUTURES RESEARCH. A LIST OF JOURNALS, PERIODIC REPORTS, GRADUATE PROGRAMS, AND OPERATIONS IN FUTURES RESEARCH IS APPENDED. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED FOR EACH SELECTION. GRAPHS AND DIAGRAMS ILLUSTRATE THE TEXT. AN INDEX AND GLOSSARY ARE INCLUDED. (KBL)