NCJ Number
68260
Date Published
1978
Length
35 pages
Annotation
THIS REPORT SUMMARIZES EVALUATION RESEARCH ON THREE HENNEPIN COUNTY, MINN., COURT PROGRAMS: PROBATION SUPERVISION, THE BASE EXPECTANCY SCALE (BES), AND THE LOW RISK SUPERVISION UNIT.
Abstract
THE EVALUATION OF PROBATION SUPERVISION EXAMINED DATA FROM 289 PROBATIONERS TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM PREVENTED RECIDIVISM. DURING THE 12-MONTH FOLLOWUP PERIOD, THE FAILURE RATE WAS 23.4 PERCENT, OF WHICH HALF WAS FOR PROBATION REVOCATIONS AND/OR NEW FELONY CONVICTIONS. FAILURE RATES FOR THE PROJECT SAMPLE AND A 1975 DISTRICT COURT SAMPLE WERE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE EVALUATION OF THE BES SOUGHT TO DETERMINE WHETHER BES ADEQUATELY DISTINGUISHED PROBATIONERS WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE LAW VIOLATIONS. RESULTS INDICATED THAT BES DOES A FAIRLY ADEQUATE JOB OF IDENTIFYING LOW RISK PROBATIONERS, BUT IS A WEAK PREDICTION MODEL. IT WAS RECOMMENDED THAT THE SCALE CONTINUE TO BE USED WHILE RESEARCH TO DEVELOP A STRONGER PREDICTION MODEL IS DEVELOPED. THE EVALUATION OF THE LOW RISK SUPERVISION UNIT SOUGHT TO DETERMINE THE UNIT'S EFFECTIVENESS IN PREVENTING RECIDIVISM AMONG PROBATIONERS CLASSIFIED AS LOW RISK ON THE BES. RESULTS FOR A SUBSAMPLE OF 138 PEOPLE SHOWED THAT THE OVERALL SUCCESS RATE WAS 86.2 PERCENT. IF MISDEMEANORS WERE EXCLUDED, THE SUCCESS RATE WAS 92 PERCENT. OF THE 11 LOW RISK UNIT PROBATIONERS WHO HAD A NEW FELONY CONVICTION OR TECHNICAL VIOLATION, ONLY 4 HAD THEIR PROBATION STATUS REVOKED. A SUMMARY OF A COST STUDY OF THE COUNTY'S VOLUNTEER JUVENILE COURT INVESTIGATOR PROGRAM IS ALSO INCLUDED. FOOTNOTES AND TABLES ARE INCLUDED.