IMPACT OF DETERMINATE SENTENCING LEGISLATION ON PRISON POPULATION AND SENTENCE LENGTH - A CALIFORNIA CASE STUDY

• NCJ Number: 57967
• Journal: PUBLIC POLICY Volume: 27 Issue: 1 Dated: (WINTER 1979) Pages: 69-98
• Author(s): D NAGIN
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 31 pages
• Grant Number(s): 1 R01 MH 28437-01
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Health, Education, and Welfare
• Corporate Author: John Wiley and Sons
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE IMPACT OF CALIFORNIA'S DETERMINATE SENTENCING CODE ON THE STATE'S PRISON POPULATION IS EXAMINED, AND A NONTECHNICAL WAY TO ANALYZE THIS IMPACT IS PRESENTED.

Abstract

SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS DEFINE MOST DETERMINATE SENTENCING PROPOSALS: (1) INCARCERATION IS NOT MANDATORY FOR MOST OFFENSES, THUS DETERMINATE SENTENCING SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH SENTENCING SCHEMES THAT MANDATE SOME MINIMUM PERIOD OF INCARCERATION; (2) WHILE INCARCERATION REMAINS DISCRETIONARY FOR MOST OFFENSES, DETERMINATE SENTENCING SYSTEMS NARROW THE WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL PENALTIES THAT TYPIFY INDETERMINATE SENTENCING STATUTES; AND (3) PAROLE POWERS ARE SHARPLY CURTAILED. A CAREFUL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THIS TYPE OF SENTENCING ON PRISON POPULATIONS IS CRUCIAL TO THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF DETERMINATE SENTENCING LEGISLATION. A RELATIVELY SIMPLE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK CAN BE USED FOR PROJECTING POPULATION IMPACTS IN A WAY THAT DOES NOT REQUIRE EXTENSIVE ANALYTICAL TRAINING TO PERFORM OR COMPREHEND. THIS METHOD OF ANALYSIS CONCENTRATES ON COMPREHENSIBILITY AND RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION OF UNALTERED ADMISSION PATTERNS; THE PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS DERIVES FROM THE SAME ASSUMPTION BY PROJECTING THE IMPACT OF A CONTINUATION OF PREVIOUS ADMISSION PATTERNS. THE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT (1) THE NEW CALIFORNIA CODE WILL SHORTEN TYPICAL PRISON TERMS, AND (2) DESPITE THE REDUCTION IN PRISON TERMS, BY ABOUT 1980 CALIFORNIA MAY ENCOUNTER A SERIOUS PRISON OVERCROWDING PROBLEM. THREE OPTIONS ARE AVAILABLE TO CALIFORNIA FOR DEALING WITH THE INCREASES: CREATING ADDITIONAL PRISON CAPACITY; THE LEGISLATURE MAY SELECTIVELY AMEND THE VERY PRECISE PENALTIES PRESCRIBED IN THE STATUTE (ONE COST OF THIS OPTION IS AN INCREASE IN INTERTEMPORAL DISPARITIES); AND THE LEGISLATURE MAY DO NOTHING AND HOPE THAT ADAPTIVE RESPONSES IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM WILL REDUCE THE POPULATION. HOWEVER, SUCH ADAPTIVE RESPONSES ARE LIKELY TO AGGRAVATE BOTH INTER- AND INTRATEMPORAL DISPARITIES. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE CALIFORNIA DETERMINATE SENTENCING CODE BE MODIFIED TO BE MORE FLEXIBLE. A COMPLETE EXPLANATION OF THE ANALYTICAL METHOD USED IS INCLUDED, AS ARE EXTENSIVE TABLES AND REFERENCES WHICH SUPPLEMENT THE TEXT.