NCJ Number
169203
Date Published
1996
Length
74 pages
Annotation
Reported motor vehicle thefts in Maryland before and after the implementation of the Maryland Vehicle Theft Prevention Council (MVTPC) and Vehicle Theft Prevention Funds in 1994 were compared to determine the program's impacts.
Abstract
The program's four parts included prevention/education, vehicle theft by juveniles, law enforcement, and prosecution. The research used the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure described by Box and Jenkins. Results indicated permanent decreases in vehicle thefts statewide and in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and Prince George's County and a permanent increase in Montgomery County after the intervention. Only the decrease in Baltimore County was statistically significant. ARIMA results for arrests for vehicle theft indicated permanent increases statewide and in some jurisdictions. None of these differences was statistically significant, however. Nevertheless, findings are highly suggestive of a positive impact of the program, although conclusive statements regarding the program's impact are not possible. Among the data suggesting that the program had a positive impact are the declines in vehicle thefts and increases in arrests in three of the four counties that received the largest shares of grant funding and the statistics indicating that reported vehicle theft was the only Part I Index Offense that declined during 1995. Results indicated that funding for this cost-effective program should continue. Tables and 29 references