NCJ Number
188141
Journal
Criminology Volume: 39 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2001 Pages: 179-203
Editor(s)
Robert J. Bursik Jr.
Date Published
February 2001
Length
25 pages
Annotation
This study outlines procedures (using Florida's habitual offender law) that criminologists used to mitigate and overcome methodological problems that plagued earlier habitual offender law research.
Abstract
This study examined the shortcomings of prior research on the impact of habitual offender laws on crime and specified procedures that could be used to mitigate these problems. Previous research had suffered from numerous methodological problems, including failure to consider incapacitation effects that may have been responsible for most of the laws' impact, but may not appear until years after the law was passed; not addressing simultaneity issues; omitting needed control variables to avoid spurious or suppressed results; lack of long-term follow-up estimating the full impact of the law; and all studies were limited to California and small samples sizes. The present study used a multiple time-series design, pooling annual data for 58 counties in Florida from 1980 to 1998. Specific procedures identified to overcome methodological problems included conducting a sentencing outcome analysis to estimate the extra amount of prison time imposed on habitual offenders, use of the Granger causality test to help resolve simultaneity issues between habitual offender laws and crime, and use of a multiple time-series design that provided for a large sample size and allowed one to enter proxy variables for unknown factors that affect crime. Substantive findings showed the habitual offender "extra prison time" and prison population variables suggest that Florida's habitual offender law may have slightly reduced rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, and auto theft. The study suggested that the impacts, although small, were a result of incapacitation as opposed to deterrence. In summary, the results suggested that Florida's habitual offender law was not very effective at reducing crime. The study recommends that the Florida legislature repeal the law and sentence repeat offenders under the State's sentencing guidelines. Given their extensive prior records, most would receive lengthy prison terms under the current sentencing guidelines and would be required to serve at least 85 percent of the sentences. References