NCJ Number
108655
Journal
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 3 Issue: 3 Dated: (September 1987) Pages: 251-273
Date Published
1987
Length
23 pages
Annotation
This paper presents a model of rational choice processes in criminal careers that explains the sorting process among three subpopulations in terms of the interaction between a behavioral response and a social response relationship.
Abstract
The choice is modeled by a dynamic Markov process that captures self-sorting by youth among the categories of innocents, desisters, and persisters. Using National Longitudinal Survey self-report data for 12,686 individuals between 14 and 24 years old, this study shows that very plausible behavior, consistent with both utilitarian theory and choice theory, could have yielded the observed outcomes. It is then shown that behavior at key transitions is subject to influences in ways that are consistent with how economists believe rational individuals will behave. A key to these results is the introduction of perceived probability of punishment and its influence on the sorting process. This force together with the availability or lack of economic opportunities or income sources modify transitional probabilities of continued criminality. The long-run consequences are a larger subpopulation of individuals who have experimented with crime, but desist, and a large smaller group that persists in crime and commits a greater proportion of crime. 3 tables, 3 figures, and 15 references. (Author abstract modified)