NCJ Number
133732
Date Published
1991
Length
130 pages
Annotation
This report presents an analysis of the Recidivism 1977 research project in the Netherlands on the course and kind of crimes committed by the group of sample offenders, a follow-up of criminal histories for 6 years, and the dangerousness of career offenders.
Abstract
The Recidivism 77 representative samples were chosen from a listing of the data set of the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) that was provided to the Research and Documentation Center of the Ministry of Justice. Further extracts from the General Documentation Files of the Criminal Record Office were utilized. This dataset contains information on about 6,000 defendants and about 60,000 offenses. Survival analysis and time series analysis were used to measure recidivism, particularly the exact time period between the day a person was adjudicated for a crime and the day when that person was arrested for committing an additional crime. The research reported here shows that if career criminals are defined as active and dangerous offenders who are responsible for a disproportionate number of serious offenses, the reliable identification of this group is possible. On the basis of its longitudinal information, the study developed an improved definition of a career offender using both retrospective aspects (two dispositions for nontrivial offenses) and prospective aspects.