NCJ Number
173445
Date Published
1997
Length
23 pages
Annotation
The numbers of juvenile and adult inmates in Virginia prisons, jails, and juvenile correctional centers were forecast by two committees using a consensus method, based on official statistics and policy analysis.
Abstract
A technical committee used quantitative methods to make projections based on past trends and patterns. A policy committee examined projections presented by the technical committee with respect to policy issues likely to affect future inmate populations. Trends included increases in the numbers of new prison admissions, a change in the composition of new inmates as a result of parole abolition, a decline in parole violator admissions in 1996 following the abolition of parole, and a 70-percent increase in the State inmate population since 1990. The forecasts assume that new court admissions will increase by 3.3 percent annually and that inmates admitted under the new law will serve 90 percent of the imposed sentences less all jail credits. They also assume that more offenders will be diverted from incarceration. The State inmate population is expected to increase from 28,743 in June 1997 to 41,389 in June 2007. The numbers of local inmates and juvenile inmates are also expected to increase. Tables, figures, and notes