NCJ Number
83073
Date Published
Unknown
Length
0 pages
Annotation
A discussion of crime pattern identification and trend analysis is followed by a description of manpower allocation and planning techniques practiced at the Kansas City (Missouri) police departments.
Abstract
A series of incidents appearing to be related to each other in some way is defined as a pattern. Trends are fluctuations in the volume of crime. If norms are set and the area of comparison kept consistent, trends can be compared over time and expressed in graphs and tabulations. Nine types of crime patterns have been identified: geographic, similar offense, sequence offense, interval, seasonal/yearly, duplicate, short-term (less than 30 days), long-term, and combination patterns. A pattern is identifiable after a second occurrence, but the identification of a pattern immediately alters it. Most patterns develop, mature, and dissipate within 60 days. Factors considered in pattern identification are crime type, weapons used, victim, and motive, together with a 'gut feeling' of the analyst. Patterns can lead to accurate predictions of crime incidents which investigators and patrol offices do not follow through often enough. The current manpower allocation practices in Kansas City evolved from a patrol study which questioned the usefulness of random patrol and indicated that direct patrol, prioritization of calls, and planned use of uncommitted time might be more effective. Sergeants have key manpower planning authority under the participatory management and task force concept. A semi-automated manpower planning capability provides the sergeant with standard requirements for the coming week, to which he adds the human component, based on crime analysis and current public events information. Uncommitted time, maximized through prioritization of calls, can be used for special problems and purposeful activities, provided that patrols can return, if needed, for the top priority -- calls for service.