NCJ Number
49906
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 9 Issue: 4 Dated: (OCTOBER 1969) Pages: 345-353
Date Published
1969
Length
9 pages
Annotation
AN INTERACTION MODEL WITH CLUSTERS OF CHARACTERISTICS IS APPLIED TO PAROLE PREDICTION. DATA COLLECTED FROM 98 MEN CONSIDERED PAROLE FAILURES AND 55 CONSIDERED SUCCESSES PROVED CLUSTERS OF ATTRIBUTES WERE VALID PREDICTORS.
Abstract
BOTH THE PAROLE SUCCESSES AND THE FAILURES HAD BEEN RELEASED FROM A MEDIUM SECURITY PENAL INSTITUTION. THE RECIDIVISTS WERE RETURNED TO PRISON FOR COMMITTING NEW CRIMES (TECHNICAL PAROLE VIOLATIONS WERE EXCLUDED). THE SUCCESSFUL PAROLEES WERE MEN WHO HAD LIVED IN THE COMMUNITY SUCCESSFULLY FOR 1 YEAR AND WHO HAD BEEN NOMINATED BY THEIR PAROLE OFFICERS AS LIKELY TO MAKE SUCCESSFUL LONG-TERM ADJUSTMENTS. DATA WERE COLLECTED ON 83 VARIABLES THROUGH PERSONALITY INVENTORIES AND OTHER QUESTIONNAIRES. THESE VARIABLES INCLUDED BOTH ITEMS COMMON IN PAROLE PREDICTION AND SOME NOT USUALLY RELATED TO PAROLE OUTCOME, SUCH AS RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER INMATES. THE RESULTS WERE CLUSTERED INTO SITUATIONAL FACTORS (RURAL OR URBAN RESIDENCE, EMPLOYMENT), IDENTIFICATION VARIABLES (EXPECTATION OF TROUBLE AFTER RELEASE, PERCEIVED STATUS RELATIVE TO OTHER INMATES, AND IDENTIFICATION WITH CRIMINAL OTHERS), AND VALUE ORIENTATION FACTORS (CRIMINAL RECORD, AGE AT RELEASE, AND ORIENTATION TO CRIMINAL MEANS OF GOAL ATTAINMENT). TABLES PRESENTING THE DATA SHOW THAT DISTRIBUTION OF PAROLE SUCCESSES AND FAILURES IS POLARIZED WHEN COMBINATIONS OF INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ARE USED. THE COMBINED INDICES OF IDENTIFICATION AND VALUE ORIENTATION MORE ACCURATELY PREDICT SUCCESS OR FAILURE THAN EITHER INDEX ALONE. THE SITUATION INDEX GIVES SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN PREDICTING FAILURES BUT NOT IN PREDICTING SUCCESS. AS EXPECTED, PAROLEES WITH GOOD PROGNOSIS, AS MEASURED BY ALL THREE CLUSTERS OF VARIABLES, WERE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY TO SUCCEED. FAILURE WERE ALSO EASILY PREDICTED. FOR THOSE MEN EXHIBITING A COMBINATION OF FACTORS, AN ANALYSIS OF INTERACTION OF VARIABLES GAVE A CLEARER PICTURE OF LIKELY PAROLE OUTCOMES. REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (GLR)