NCJ Number
59780
Date Published
1979
Length
14 pages
Annotation
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN 1978 IS THE SUBJECT OF THIS CIA RESEARCH PAPER WHICH EXAMINES TRENDS, FORTUNES OF MAJOR GROUPS, PATRON STATE SUPPORT, ANTITERRORIST COUNTERMEASURES, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR 1979.
Abstract
DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN 1978 REVEAL SEVERAL MAJOR PATTERNS: (1) AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL INCIDENTS AND THEIR ATTENDANT CASUALITIES, WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO THE EXPORT OF MIDDLE EAST CONFLICTS TO WESTERN EUROPE; (2) TERRORIST PREFERENCE OF THE INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACIES OF WESTERN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA AS THE FOCUS OF THEIR OPERATIONS; (3) THE SHIFT OF VIOLENCE IN LATIN AMERICA TO CENTRAL AMERICA, PARTICULARLY IN GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR, AND NICARAGUA; (4) THE OCCURRENCE OF MORE ATTACKS THAN THE PREVIOUS YEAR AGAINST U.S. CITIZENS AND PROPERTY DUE TO THE DETERIORATING SITUATION IN IRAN; (5) OFFICIALS AND BUSINESSMEN REMAINING THE PRIMARY TARGETS, WITH TOURISTS AND OTHER PRIVATE CITIZENS AS INCIDENTAL TARGETS; (6) THE CONTINUATION OF MOST TERRORIST ATTACKS TO BE SIMPLE BOMBINGS, ARSONS, SNIPINGS, OR THREATS DESPITE THE PUBLICITY GIVEN TO THE FEW SENSATIONAL OPERATIONS; AND (7) A NEW AND DISTURBING TERRORIST TECHNIQUE INVOLVING THE INDISCRIMINATE TARGETING OF INNOCENT BYSTANDERS (POISONING OF ISRAELI ORANGES IN WESTERN EUROPE). BRIEF DESCRIPTIONS OF THE ACTIVITIES OF MAJOR TERRORIST GROUPS ARE PROVIDED, INCLUDING THE SUCCESSES OF THE ITALIAN RED BRIGADES, THE SETBACKS SUFFERED BY THE WEST GERMAN RADICALS AND THE POPULAR FRONT FOR THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE, AND THE RELATIVE INACTIVITY OF THE JAPANESE RED ARMY AND THE INDIAN RELIGIOUS GROUP, THE ANANDA MARG. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION TO COMBAT TERRORISM APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AS EVIDENCED BY LIBYA'S VOW TO ARREST AND EXTRADITE GERMAN TERRORISTS AND EASTERN EUROPEAN EFFORTS TO ARREST BORDER VIOLATORS (WITH SOVIET SUPPORT). IN ADDITION, PARAMILITARY SQUADS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED TO RESCUE HOSTAGES, AND CONVENTIONS HAVE BEEN HELD TO REACH INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS ON METHODS OF HANDLING TERRORISTS. PATTERNS FOR 1979 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST AFFLUENT NATIONS, PARTICULARLY INVOLVING PALESTINIANS AND THE USE OF BOMBS AND INCENDIARY DEVICES. ALTHOUGH TERRORISTS MAY BE MOTIVATED TO CHANGE THEIR TACTICS IN RESPONSE TO INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO COMBAT THEM, OVERALL TERRORIST ACTIVITY FOR 1979 SHOULD BE LOWER THAN FOR PREVIOUS YEARS DUE TO THE CYCLICAL PATTERN ESTABLISHED FOR MOST TERRORIST GROUPS. EXTENSIVE STATISTICS ON INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM ARE APPENDED. (WJR)