NCJ Number
166169
Date Published
1997
Length
74 pages
Annotation
This report examines the factors that influence fluctuations in aggregate levels of recorded crime in New Zealand, forecasts crime rates, and discusses the potential impact on crime rates of factors that could not be statistically evaluated.
Abstract
This research is the first stage of a Ministry of Justice project to develop a statistical model of the criminal justice system. Multiple regression techniques were used to determine which social, economic, demographic and justice factors were statistically associated with changes in the annual growth rate of recorded crime rates over the 1962-95 time period. The report also forecasts crime rates using the results of the regression models, as well as time-series and judgment techniques, and discusses the potential impact on crime rates of factors that could not be statistically evaluated. Sections that discuss factors associated with the growth of recorded crime examine precedents, results and interpretation of economic, social, demographic, and criminal factors, among others. The chapter on forecasting crime rates discusses dishonesty offenses, property damage, violent offenses and other offenses against a person, domestic violence and sexual offenses, and drug offenses. References, appendixes, tables, figures