INVERSE DISTANCE VARIATIONS FOR THE FLOW OF CRIME IN URBAN AREAS

• NCJ Number: 34777
• Journal: Social Forces Volume: 54 Issue: 4 Dated: (JUNE 1976) Pages: 802-815
• Author(s): T S SMITH
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 14 pages
• Corporate Author: University of North Carolina Press
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS PAPER REPORTS THE RESULTS OF AN ATTEMPT TO FIT MIGRATION RULES BASED ON GRAVITY MODELS AND THE THEORY OF INTERVENING OPPORTUNITIES TO THE 'FLOW' OF CRIMES AMONG URBAN LOCATIONS.

Abstract

THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY WAS NOT TO INQUIRE INTO THE SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY OF CRIMINAL MIGRATION, NOR INTO THE SPECIFIC SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC MATTERS THAT INFLUENCE PARTICULAR DECISIONS TO COMMIT CRIMES AT GIVEN LOCATIONS WITHIN URBAN AREAS, BUT INSTEAD TO ASK WHETHER THE GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC PHENOMENON ITSELF - THE SHEER FLOW OF CRIME WITHIN THE CITY - CONFORMS TO KNOWN RULES DESCRIBING OTHER FORMS OF DEMOGRAPHIC GRAVITATION. CRIME, LIKE OTHER PHENOMENA OF DEMOGRAPHIC FLOW, IS SHOWN TO BE SUBJECT TO THE GENERAL CLASS OF INVERSE DISTANCE VARIATIONS FORMULATED AS GRAVITY LAWS. WHILE THE THEORY OF INTERVENING OPPORTUNITIES WAS FOUND TO FARE POORLY IN COMPARISON TO MODELS INCORPORATING A MEASURE OF DISTANCE, THE BEST FIT ACHIEVED EMPIRICALLY WAS BASED ON A COMPOSITE GRAVITY RULE THAT INCLUDES A TERM ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT TO STOUFFER'S CONCEPT OF OPPORTUNITIES. A SEPARATE ANALYSIS OF THE FLOW OF PROPERTY CRIMES FAILED TO IMPROVE THE FIT OF MODELS OTHERWISE SUCCESSFUL IN PREDICTING THE FLOW OF ALL CRIMES. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)