NCJ Number
85996
Date Published
1980
Length
240 pages
Annotation
Focusing mainly on the United States, this research investigates the relation between selected crimes and the business cycle for the period 1929-49 and finds that some correlations are negative and some are positive.
Abstract
The study uses the 'Ayres' Index' as the economic factor for the United States; the national income of the United Kingdom for English data; and for crimes indexes, the crimes known to the police as compiled by the FBI and the British Home Office. The offense groups studies are burglary, robbery, aggravated assault, and murder. The research distinguishes between large and small cycles of business and of crimes. Coefficients of correlation are computed between business and crimes indexes as the basic research technique. Findings show that correlations between burglary and the business cycle and between robbery and the business cycle in the United States are negative. Offenses against property without violence known to the police in England and Wales correlate -.25 with the business cycle. Correlations between the indexes of aggravated assault and the business cycle and between murder and the business cycle are positive. Rapes and indecent assaults on females correlate +.32 and +.33, respectively, according to the English data. Footnotes, tables, figures, and about 75 references are included. Basic data, crimes indexes for the United States, and trend line equations used in the correlation analysis are appended. (Author summary modified)