NCJ Number
97123
Date Published
Unknown
Length
132 pages
Annotation
This study tests the feasibility of using the Iowa Risk Assessment tool to predict parole outcomes in the District of Columbia.
Abstract
The Iowa Risk Assessment tool predicts the likelihood of both general recidivism and rearrest for violent offenses. It also identifies persons who are at low risk of becoming recidivists, so they may become candidates for early release. The data for the feasibility study were drawn from files and records maintained by the District of Columbia Board of Parole. Although the total sample size was 581, incomplete records precluded analysis in 8 cases. The average age of the sample was 30.5 years, and data on education and employment suggest that slightly more than 38 percent of the sample possessed some employable skill at the time of arrest and that the mean level of education was 10th grade. Data on marital status suggest that most sample members were never married and that few had significant numbers of dependents. All sample members were classified according to the criteria of the risk assessment tool. Further, frequencies for predicted risk levels were examined to identify an expected preponderance of low-risk individuals; predicted data and real data were compared to determine parole success and failure within specified risk levels; and correlations were run between predicted and real outcomes. Research findings suggest that the Iowa Risk Assessment tool would be of little use in the District of Columbia. Although the tool is capable of identifying aggregate levels of success and failure, it does not identify individuals in terms of their parole success and/or failure. Thus, it should not be used to identify individuals for early parole release. Eleven figures, 24 tables, and 4 references are included.