Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY2008-2018

• NCJ Number: 234899
• Author(s): Paul Stageberg Ph.D.
• Date Published: November 2008
• Length: 41 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)
• Corporate Author: Iowa Dept of Human Rights
• Sale Source: Iowa Dept of Human Rights
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This is the 18th annual Prison Population Forecast prepared by the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP).

Abstract

This report has been developed to not only assess the impacts of current policy, but to assist the Executive and Legislative Branches of Government in annually assessing the impact of current criminal justice policy on Iowa's prison population. This report provides an indication of the direction Iowa can anticipate its prison population will move under current policies and procedures. As these are modified, the State can anticipate different results in future forecasts. This year's forecast suggests that current policies and procedures will result in a smaller prison population in ten years than previous forecasts. Nonetheless, after a brief period of decline, this forecast shows a resumption of increases in FY2011. Some of the eventual increase is due to recent changes in policy. In FY2006, for example, sex offender statutes were toughened and a new "special sentence" was created. As a result, this year's forecast projects the addition of 138 sex offenders to the population between June 2008 and June 2018. This forecasted increase is probably an underestimation, as the impacts of some of the 2005 changes are yet uncertain. In FY08 Iowa continued to exhibit a high rate of incarceration for African-Americans. Trends suggest that this rate will continue through the projection period, with African-Americans accounting for about 25 percent of the population. The violent crime initiative of the mid-1990s continues to disproportionately affect African-Americans; while about 14 percent of African-American inmates were serving "70 percent" sentences on June 30, 2008; trends suggest that this will increase to 19 percent by the end of FY2018 (the projected increase for White inmates is from about 9 percent to 12 percent). The forecast projects an increase of 370 inmates serving "70 percent" sentences by the end of the forecast period. Tables and figures