It Is Very Hard To Predict, Especially the Future (From Confinement in Maximum Custody, P 15-24, 1981, David A Wood and Kenneth F Schoen, ed. - See NCJ-77087)

• NCJ Number: 77089
• Author(s): J P Conrad
• Date Published: 1981
• Length: 10 pages
• Sale Source: D C Heath and Co
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Results from studies that have examined the predictability of violent behavior are analyzed, and implications for corrections are developed.

Abstract

Studies show that the violent conduct of an offender cannot be reliably predicted. Such findings imply that the criminal justice system has no right to control or incapacitate offenders for the purpose of preventing them from doing what they probably will not do. Correctional policy should not be based in what an offender might do, but rather in what he/she has done, as determined by the courts. The law and the courts should see that certain adverse consequences accompany behavior deemed criminal. These consequences should be graded according to society's perception of the seriousness of the crimes for which they are administered. Corrections should apply the consequences as set by law and the courts. Imprisonment will be a consequence for the more serious offenses. Beyond incapacitation, however, prisons should not expand on severity of punishment. Life inside prisons should be as humane and constructive as is reasonably possible. This should include opportunities for work, with wages acting as a sufficient incentive; a structure for productivity and good civic conduct; and the encouragement of increasing responsibility. Notes are provided.