It's No Riddle, Choose the Middle: The Effect of Number of Crimes and Topographical Detail on Police Officer Predictions of Serial Burglars' Home Locations

• NCJ Number: 217390
• Journal: Criminal Justice and Behavior Volume: 34 Issue: 1 Dated: January 2007 Pages: 119-132
• Author(s): Craig Bennell; Brent Snook; Paul J. Taylor; Shevaun Corey; Julia Keyton
• Date Published: January 2007
• Length: 14 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study examined the influences of number of offenses and characteristics of crime locations on police officers' predictions of serial burglars' home locations.

Abstract

The study found that police officers were able to make accurate predictions about a serial burglar's home location. Their performance matched that of previous studies that measured the accuracy associated with geographic profiling. Even without any structured training, many police officers made predictions that were as accurate as those produced by a computerized geographic profiling system. Participants consistently made more accurate predictions on maps that showed five crime locations than maps that showed three or seven crimes. This effect was magnified after participants were trained in proven crime-analysis methods. These findings challenge the argument by professional profilers that more information increases the rate of accurate predictions. The finding that accuracy decreased with information on seven locations compared to five locations suggests that too much information may overwhelm or confuse the investigator. Knowledge of topographical details (characteristics of the places where each burglary occurred) did not improve performance. Possible explanations for this finding are presented. Study participants were 91 police officers of varying ranks from a large police service in the United Kingdom. Participants were given 36 maps that depicted 3, 5, or 7 crime sites and topographical or no topographical details. They were asked to predict, by marking an x on the map, where they believed each burglar lived. After making their predictions on half of the maps, officers randomly received either no training or training in one of two simple decisionmaking strategies. The accuracy of predictions at baseline and retest was measured as the distance between the predicted and actual burglar's home location. These accuracy scores were compared with those of a commonly used geographic profiling system. 3 figures, 7 notes, and 35 references