JAIL POPULATION MANAGEMENT - DIAGNOSING AND PREDICTING CHANGES IN OCCUPANCY LEVELS

• NCJ Number: 10915
• Author(s): E J BURKE; R C CUSHMAN
• Date Published: 1973
• Length: 71 pages
• Grant Number(s): 72-NI-09-0001
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: American Justice Institute
• Sale Source: National Technical Information Service
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: SANTA CLARA CRIMINAL JUSTICE PILOT PROGRAM

Annotation

DIAGNOSTIC AND PREDICTIVE MATHEMATICAL MODELS UTILIZED IN UNDERSTANDING PRE-TRIAL DETENTION FACILITY POPULATION DYNAMICS FOR MANAGEMENT USE.

Abstract

THIS PAPER CONTAINS A DISCUSSION OF THE MANNER IN WHICH MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS (OPERATIONS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY) FROM MODERN STOCHASTIC THEORY (A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH) PERMITS THE CONSTRUCTION OF TWO GENERAL TYPES OF PREDICTIVE JAIL MODELS. THESE MODELS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS TYPES OF RANDOM INPUT (BOOKINGS) AND OUTPUT (RELEASES). THE MANNER IN WHICH THE JAIL POPULATION PROGRESSES FROM ONE LEVEL TO ANOTHER AND THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE TRANSITIONS ARE DESCRIBED. NUMERICAL DATA ARE PRESENTED WHICH ILLUSTRATE THE USE OF THE MODEL AS A DIAGNOSTIC AND PREDICTIVE TOOL. FURTHER, THE BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR A FORMALIZED CONTROL AND DECISION MODEL ARE PRESENTED. TOPICS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT WORK ARE DISCUSSED, INCLUDING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A JAIL POPULATION CONTROL SYSTEM ON A REAL-TIME BASIS. APPENDED MATERIAL INCLUDES A FORM FOR DAILY BOOKING AND POPULATION COUNTS, AN EXPLANATION OF THE MATHEMATICS OF THE JAIL POPULATION MODELS, AND COMPUTER PRINTOUTS ON RELEASE TYPES AND COURT DISPOSITION. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)