JUDGMENT IN SAFEGUARDS ACTIVITIES (FROM PREVENTING NUCLEAR THEFT - GUIDELINES FOR INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT, 1972, BY ROBERT B LEACHMAN AND PHILLIP ALTHOFF - SEE NCJ-63601)

• NCJ Number: 63611
• Author(s): F MORGAN
• Date Published: 1972
• Length: 15 pages
• Corporate Author: Praeger Publishers
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: PAPER PRESENTED AT A SYMPOSIUM OF IMPLEMENTING NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS, SPONSORED BY THE DIVERSION SAFEGUARDS PROGRAM ON THE CAMPUS OF KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY, OCTOBER 25-27, 1971

Annotation

ANALYTICAL APPROACHES FOR DEVELOPING AN INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL ARE EXAMINED AND COMPARED WITH POLITICAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE JUDGEMENT METHODS, USING THE NATION AS THE CONTROL UNIT.

Abstract

USING A THEORETICAL APPROACH INVOLVING GAMES THEORY PRESENTS NUMEROUS DIFFICULTIES BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEXITY OF NUCLEAR INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES AND THE DIFFICULTY OF APPLYING SUCH AN APPROACH TO MULTILATERAL SITUATIONS. A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS APPROACH CAN IDENTIFY THE CRITICAL POINTS OF THE FUEL CYCLE AND DEMONSTRATE WHETHER FURTHER INSPECTION OR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IS NEEDED TO REDUCE OVERALL RISKS OF THEFT. IN THIS METHOD, THE POTENTIAL TIME ELAPSED BETWEEN MATERIALS THEFT AND ITS CONVERSION TO MILITARY USE IS RELEVANT IN DETERMINING HOW THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY SHOULD DEPLOY ITS PERSONNEL. MEASUREMENT OF MATERIALS UNACCOUNTED FOR (MUF) IN INDIVIDUAL PLANTS IS COMPLICATED, HOWEVER, BY IMPERFECTIONS OF MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES AND VARIATIONS IN PLANT PERFORMANCE. MEANS FOR INDEPENDENTLY CHECKING NORMAL PLANT DATA ARE THEREFORE NEEDED. OVER TIME, THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CUMULATIVE MUF TOTAL MAY INCREASE, ALTHOUGH IT MAY REFLECT CUMULATIVE VARIABILITY RATHER THAN ACTUAL VALUE. OBJECTIVE APPROACHES TO CONTROL ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY POLICYMAKERS' UNFAMILIARITY WITH STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES AND THEIR RESULTING SUSPICION OF THE TECHNIQUES' IMPERFECTIONS. THE CHOICE IS THEREFORE BETWEEN EXPERT JUDGMENT WHICH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY EXPLAINED AND NUMERICAL STUDY WHICH CAN BE OBJECTIVE BUT MAY BE INADEQUATE OR MISLEADING. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS CAN PROMOTE CONCERN AND HELP SET PRIORITIES, BUT ITS PRACTICE MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH FACTORY PRACTICE. STATISTICS CAN INDICATE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS NEEDING FURTHER INVESTIGATION, BUT THE INESCAPABLE FACT OF NATIONAL CONTROL OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS MAKES VALUE JUDGMENTS BY POLITICIANS AND ADMINISTRATORS NECESSARY AND SOLE RELIANCE ON MATHEMATICAL JUDGMENTS INADEQUATE. AUDIENCE DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED. (CFW)