NCJ Number
55507
Date Published
1977
Length
424 pages
Annotation
MAJOR THEORIES OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE ARE REVIEWED, AND THE BEHAVIORAL THEORY OF CYERT AND MARCH IS APPLIED TO THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. FIVE HYPOTHESES DEVELOPED FROM THE THEORY ARE TESTED IN RAMSEY COUNTY, MINN.
Abstract
RAMSEY COUNTY IS A MIXED URBAN AND RURAL AREA WHOSE MAJOR CITY IS ST. PAUL. THE 1970 POPULATION WAS 476,255, OF WHOM 309,980 LIVED IN ST. PAUL. THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE AGENCIES OF THE AREA ARE DESCRIBED IN DETAIL, AND THE HYPOTHESES DEVELOPED BY CYERT AND MARCH ARE EXAMINED. THE FIRST STATES THAT THE SENTENCE OFFERED BY THE PROSECUTOR IN PLEA BARGAINING IS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO THE PRODUCT OF THE MAXIMUM POSSIBLE SENTENCE WERE THE DEFENDANT TO GO TO TRIAL AND THE PROBABILITY OF THE DEFENDANT'S CONVICTION. THIS HYPOTHESIS WAS CONFIRMED. THE HYPOTHESIS THAT A REDUCTION IN THE MEAN TIME ACTUALLY SERVED FOR A GIVEN OFFENSE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REDUCTION IN NOMINAL SENTENCES OFFERED IN PLEA BARGAINING WAS SUPPORTED WEAKLY. THE PROPOSITION THAT THE EXPECTED VALUE OF ACTUAL TIME TO BE SERVED IS THE SAME FOR GUILTY PLEAS AND FOR TRIALS COULD NOT BE TESTED WITH DATA AVAILABLE, BUT APPEARED TO BE UNTRUE. TWO ADDITIONAL HYPOTHESES WERE CONFIRMED: (1) THE MEAN ACTUAL TIME SERVED FOR A GIVEN OFFENSE BY PRISONERS PAROLED IN A GIVEN YEAR IS A SIGNIFICANT PREDICTOR OF THE SENTENCES PROSECUTORS WILL OFFER TO DEFENDANTS IN THAT YEAR AND (2) ACTUAL TIME SERVED FOR A GIVEN OFFENSE BY PRISONERS PAROLED IN A GIVEN YEAR WAS A MORE SIGNIFICANT PREDICTOR IN 1973 THAN IN 1968. (THIS HYPOTHESIS TESTED THE ASSUMPTION THAT PAROLE POLICIES WERE A GREATER CONSTRAINT ON PROSECUTORIAL BEHAVIOR IN 1973 THAN IN 1968.) THE CYERT AND MARCH THEORY WAS DEVELOPED FOR THE EAST COAST CRIMINAL JUSTICE SITUATION, AND THE FACT THAT MINNESOTA DATA DID NOT FULLY CONFIRM THEIR THEORY POINTS OUT THAT NO ONE CRIMINAL JUSTICE THEORY IS VALID FOR ALL STATES. AN EXTENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY IS APPENDED. (GLR)