NCJ Number
57765
Journal
EVALUATION ON QUARTERLY Volume: 3 Issue: 2 Dated: (MAY 1979) Pages: 315-328
Date Published
1979
Length
14 pages
Annotation
A RESEARCHER WHO MEASURED THE IMPACT OF THE MASSACHUSETTS GUN CONTROL LAW ON ARMED ROBBERY, ASSAULT, AND HOMICIDE RATES IN BOSTON RESPONDS TO A CRITIQUE OF HIS STUDY.
Abstract
THE STUDY USED TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND CONCLUDED THAT THE LAW HAD REDUCED ROBBERY AND ASSAULT RATES BUT NOT THE HOMICIDE RATE. THE CRITIQUE (SEE NCJ-57764) FOUND FAULT WITH THE STUDY'S METHODS, PARTICULARLY ITS MODELING TECHNIQUES, AND SUGGESTED THAT ITS CONCLUSIONS WERE UNFOUNDED. THE CRITIQUE IS SAID TO BE FRAUGHT WITH 'INCONSISTENCIES, INACCURACIES, AND HALF-TRUTHS,' SOME OF WHICH REFLECT THE CRITICS' FAILURE TO DISTINGUISH PROPERLY BETWEEN SHIFT DETECTED MODELS (WHICH DETERMINE WHETHER AND WHEN A CHANGE HAS TAKEN PLACE) AND DYNAMIC MODELS (WHICH DESCRIBE THE NATURE OF CHANGES KNOWN TO HAVE TAKEN PLACE). THE CRITICS' COMMENTS ON THE MODELING OF EACH OF THE STUDY'S THREE TIME SERIES (ONE FOR EACH CRIME) ARE USED. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT THE ARTICLE IN QUESTION (I.E., THE TARGET OF THE CRITIQUE) WAS PRESENTED AS A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE LAW'S IMPACT, NOT AS A SUBJECTIVE, COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION. SUPPORTING DATA AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)