NCJ Number
178771
Journal
Criminology Volume: 37 Issue: 3 Dated: August 1999 Pages: 581-598
Date Published
1999
Length
18 pages
Annotation
This article seeks to demonstrate that changes in the age structure have a limited impact on aggregate crime rates.
Abstract
The article is presented in five sections: (1) documentation of major shifts in the U.S. age distribution since 1960, the projected trend through the year 2010, and the well-known relationship between age and criminal involvement; (2) an outline of the methodology used to determine the impact of shifts in the age distribution on aggregate crime rates; (3) empirical estimates; (4) consideration of the evidence for a possible nonlinear relationship between cohort size and criminal involvement that could lead the analytic approach to understate the true impact of age shifts; and (5) conclusion. Changes in the age structure through the year 2010 will work very weakly in favor of lower crime, in stark contrast to the frequently made assertion that the United States is in the beginning stages of a demographically driven crime wave. No evidence was uncovered to support the claim that per capita criminal activity is an increasing function of cohort size. Notes, figure, tables, references