NCJ Number
158880
Date Published
1995
Length
11 pages
Annotation
After an introductory discussion of the appeal of incapacitation as a corrections policy, this article profiles techniques for assessing the effects of incapacitation and summarizes the findings of specific studies that have examined the effectiveness of collective and selective incapacitation.
Abstract
The appeal of selective incapacitation is that it appears appropriate for offenders who offend with unusually high frequency. Two major approaches are used in the literature to estimate the effect of incapacitation. The first, and more technically sophisticated, method is based on a mathematical model of offending activities during an offender's criminal career. The second method involves simulating the effects of changes to imprisonment policy using a sample of actual offenders. The author reviews six studies that focused on the incapacitative effect of existing imprisonment policies in various jurisdictions, and he summarizes five studies that measured the marginal incapacitative effects of changes to existing imprisonment policies. The research evidence examined suggests that estimates of the impact of collective incapacitation vary considerably from one study to another and depending on the severity of the policy; however, even a modest reduction in crime involves paying a high price in terms of increases in the prison population; a 10-percent decrease in crime typically requires a doubling of the prison population. Selective incapacitation promises a better trade-off by targeting offenders who have high rates of offending. Such policies, however, punish offenders on the basis of prediction, which is criticized on both technical and ethical grounds. Also, the models used to evaluate the effectiveness of incapacitation are based on a number of assumptions that may be false. 1 figure, 16 notes, and 30 references